Georgia

The fighting between Russia and Georgia should worry us all.

It is not simply the loss of life, dreadful though that is. Rather it's that events in the Caucuses may have serious implications for Britain and the world - if they are badly handled.

Truth is the first victim of war: so it's difficult to apportion blame for the South Ossetian crisis. Yet Russia's disproportionate response suggest we must reassess our policy towards Moscow.

Yet we need to be realistic - both about the nature of the threat posed and about the credibility of our response.

Russia is not about to rebuild a 21st century Soviet Union. Cynically, its power brokers are energy oligarchs, for whom war would not be profitable. Russia is however a potential threat to Europe's energy security - though not to Britain's, as we buy little Russian gas or oil. Plus, Russia still needs customers, and, for the medium term, her pipelines largely go in one direction.

The likelihood of Russia attacking former Soviet countries like Poland seems remote - and NATO, including the UK, has promised to defend such countries from attack. Such promises are credible, with current political and military arrangements.

What is totally incredible is to promise new countries, including Georgia, we would send British troops to defend them. First, US and UK armed forces are already dangerously overstretched. Second, to be credible, we would either have to increase defence spending massively and/or introduce military conscription.

After Iraq, one would hope that neo-Conservatives like President Bush, John McCain or David Cameron would think more carefully before promising to fight more wars.