Crimes recorded

Is crime going up or down in Britain?

Crimes recorded by the police rose 1% last year. Yet crimes recorded by the British Crime Survey showed a 5% fall. Bizarrely, both are right - as they are different measures.

“Crimes recorded” depends on various factors. More police is likely to mean more crime recorded - likewise, if people become more willing to report crime.

The annual crime survey, by contrast, asks 40,000 people what crimes actually happened to them.

The survey is a better measure than “crimes recorded” in one way – it picks up crimes that otherwise go unreported. Yet it excludes crimes against people under 16, as they are not questioned in the survey.

It’s a big difference for violent crime.

“Crimes recorded” includes violent crimes even if they don’t involve injury – now about half of recorded violent crimes. The survey won’t pick up many of these “less” violent crimes, as people don’t tend to remember them when questioned.

So, not surprisingly, the British Crime Survey shows violent crime falling, while there’s a rise in “recorded” violent crime.

It’s confusing – but most analysts now agree crime is falling. Indeed, the survey suggests crime has fallen 39% since 1995, the biggest fall since the 19th century.

Yet, whatever statistics you believe, I strongly believe two things. Crime remains too high. And we still need more police.